Neither the Toronto Blue Jays nor the New York Yankees are in their top form right now, but one of them will come away with a win at Rogers Centre tonight.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios has struggled to contain the Yankees, and I like that trend to continue tonight. I'm backing Aaron Judge on the prop market and New York to lead at the halfway mark.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees on June 27.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Go to full Blue Jays/Yankees MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Judge over 0.5 runs (-134)
If you're seated in the outfield at Rogers Centre tonight, bring a glove and pay attention. Aaron Judge just might put a dent in the scoreboard.
Judge, the odds-on favourite to win MVP, is vaporizing everything thrown his way these days. Marvel at his stats through 21 games this month:
- .403 BA
- .917 SLG
- 16 extra-base hits (10 HRs)
- 21 runs
- 32 RBI
Judge has homered in four of his past six games. It's a wonder anyone still pitches to him.
Berrios doesn't issue many walks, but I still wouldn't be surprised if he opted to work around Judge tonight. That's why I prefer Judge's runs prop rather than backing him over 1.5 bases (-134).
In their head-to-head history, Judge has clearly had the upper hand. The towering outfielder is 12-for-29 (.414) with four HRs, four walks and just four strikeouts against Berrios.
Oh, and Rogers Centre is essentially a second home for Judge. He has a 1.047 OPS in 46 games in Toronto and it's where he hit his AL-record-tying 61st home run in 2022.
The venue, the pitching matchup and the recent explosion of success for Judge makes him a compelling case on several markets.
A +205 price for Judge to leave the yard is somewhat interesting, but I'm also willing to put up with the juice on this runs prop.
Key stat: Judge has scored a run in 18 of his past 23 games.
Quick pick
Yankees -0.5 - first five innings (+104): Judge isn't the only Yankee who has tagged Berrios in previous matchups.
According to Baseball Savant, New York's active lineup is batting .310 with a .528 SLG in 142 at-bats against Berrios. That's a hearty sample — and a lot of those at-bats are recent.
Berrios faced the Yankees three times last season, allowing 11 runs on 18 hits over 18.1 innings.
Dating back to 2022, the Blue Jays have trailed at the F5 mark in four consecutive Berrios starts.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 06/27/24.
