Tonight's MLB prop bets feature Nick Castellanos, Corbin Burnes and Colt Keith.
The pregame narrative: Keith is my pick from tonight's lone late matchup, and I'm fading his runs prop. Earlier on, I'm backing Castellanos to notch an RBI and Burnes to work deep into his matchup against the Texas Rangers.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Thursday, June 27.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Castellanos over 0.5 RBI (+130)
Castellanos hasn't been a very effective hitter with runners on base this season. But I'm not worried about that.
To me, the more important thing is that he's seeing a high volume of plate appearances with runners on. When given the right matchup, that should lead to run production.
Castellanos has 150 plate appearances with runners on base this year, which is the 24th-most among all players. He only has an 85 wRC+ in those PAs, mind you, but the quantity of RBI opportunities is encouraging.
Tonight, Castellanos draws a nice matchup against left-hander Trevor Rogers. The outfielder is 4-for-8 against Rogers with a home run and a walk.
In a more general sense, this righty-on-lefty platoon advantage also works in Castellanos' favour. Throughout his career, Castellanos has an .869 OPS against LHPs and a .767 OPS against RHPs.
Castellanos usually bats in the heart of the Philadelphia Phillies' lineup, which is a great place to be if you want to drive in runs. Against lefties, the Phillies have the second-highest team OBP (.340).
Key stat: Castellanos has 10 RBI in his past 10 games, cashing this bet six times.
Quick picks
Burnes over 18.5 outs (+114): Most pitchers don't make a habit of pitching past the sixth inning, so I'm always a bit hesitant to take the over on a line like this.
But at plus money, Burnes has my attention. He has cashed this prop in four of his past five outings.
The Baltimore Orioles ace has pitched into the sixth inning or later in 15 of 16 starts, which means his floor is exceptionally high. The O's rely on him to be a workhorse, and he's delivering time after time.
Burnes has very limited experience against the Rangers, but he's held the current lineup to 4-for-19 batting and eight strikeouts. And the Rangers have been seriously slumping lately, with a 77 +wRC in the past two weeks.
Keith under 0.5 runs (-117): For the night owls, the Detroit Tigers/Los Angeles Angels matchup is the only one after 8:10 p.m. ET. Keith isn't the biggest name, but he's worth paying attention to on Thursday.
Keith, a consensus top-50 prospect entering the season, is seeing some undo opportunity in a bad Tigers lineup.
Despite posting just a .618 OPS this year, Keith was bumped up to the No. 2 spot in the Tigers' batting order last week. He has a .268 on-base percentage this month and has gone under 0.5 runs in 15 of 19 starts.
Even if Keith finds his way on base, I'm not confident that others can bring him around. Detroit has a .644 OPS (83 wRC+) over the past month.
Picks made at 4:35 p.m. ET on 06/27/2024.
