The Toronto Blue Jays try to avoid a series sweep today in their final meeting with the Detroit Tigers.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman takes the mound for his second outing this season against the Tigers. I'm backing him to clear a teased-down strikeout total. To round out the parlay ticket, I'm taking the under on an alternate game total and adding in Spencer Horwitz to record a hit.
Check out the full Blue Jays SGP picks vs. Tigers on July 21.
Blue Jays SGP picks vs. Tigers
Go to full Blue Jays/Tigers betting markets.
Parlay: Gasuman over 5.5 strikeouts + Under 9 runs + Horwitz over 0.5 hits (+290)
Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (-162): Gausman hasn't been the AL Cy Young finalist he was a season ago, but he's more than capable of hitting this over when he's on his game.
In his last two starts, Gausman pitched 13.0 innings and gave up just four earned runs. The 33-year-old also dealt against the Tigers when he faced them back in May.
Gausman threw six innings of three-hit, one-run ball. He also struck out 10 Detroit batters.
That wasn't a one-time thing, either. In 86 at-bats against this Tigers' lineup, Gausman has thrown 29 strikeouts (33.7% K rate).
Even though Detroit won handily yesterday, the team still had 11 Ks.
The Tigers strike out 8.64 times per game (10th highest), which rises to 9.29 times per game on the road (eighth highest), per Team Rankings.
So it's no surprise Gausman has had success against this offence before. He has cleared this total in nine of his last 13 starts overall.
Other picks
Under 9 runs (-162): This is a bit of a risk with an inexperienced pitcher starting for the Tigers, but fading a teased-up game total feels attainable for this parlay.
Keider Montero has made just five starts in his young career and has an unflattering 5.47 ERA. In fairness, he's has had to play some of the league's best offensive teams so far.
Four of his five starts have come against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies. All of those clubs sit inside the top 10 for runs per game.
Montero managed to hold Cleveland scoreless and the Twins to two runs but got shelled for five against both the Dodgers and Phillies.
Toronto doesn't have nearly the offensive firepower of those other teams. The Blue Jays score the sixth-fewest runs per game (4.05).
As mentioned before, I'm expecting Gausman to do his part and the Jays' offence to struggle, so I'm backing the under here.
Horwitz over 0.5 hits (-210): This is a line that has cashed frequently in the past.
Horwitz went hitless in his past two games, but before that he recorded a knock in 11 of the previous 14 games.
He hits the fastball well, with a .290 average and a .452 slugging percentage against the pitch. The good news is Montero's arsenal consists of just four pitch types with his fastball being his go-to. The righty uses it 44.4% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.
Horwitz can do more than just hit a fastball, though. In 34 games this season, the second-year player has a slash line of .315/.419/.472 and is flashing the potential to be one of the better contact hitters in the league.
I'm expecting him to get back on track with at least one hit this afternoon.
Picks as of 10:46 a.m. on 07/21/2024.
