It's a doubleheader day for the Toronto Blue Jays, as they face the Baltimore Orioles on the road for a straight doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: The first of today's two games begins at 3:05 p.m. ET, with Yariel Rodriguez facing Baltimore's newly acquired Zach Eflin. Toronto has fared well in three matchups against Eflin this year (all while he was with Tampa Bay), and I'm rolling with a Jays-heavy ticket today.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles on July 29.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Go to full Blue Jays/Orioles MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Spencer Horwitz over 0.5 runs (+123)
In the run-up to tomorrow's trade deadline, the Blue Jays have shipped off some notable names from their roster. But Horwitz isn't going anywhere.
The 26-year-old rookie has been one of the club's best contributors this year and looks like a player who can remain a mainstay in the lineup heading into next season. His .830 OPS is second on the team behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Horwitz only has 159 plate appearances, so his sample size is pretty small. But in that span, he has almost as many walks (19) as he has strikeouts (25).
If he was a qualified hitter, Horwitz would rank inside the top 25 for highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate.
Those stats alone provide a nice baseline for his ability to exercise plate discipline and get on base. He also has a 44.1% launch angle sweet spot rate, per Baseball Savant, which puts him at the top of the league in terms of contact quality (the qualified leader is Freddie Freeman at 42.9%).
Put it all together and you have a disciplined hitter who gets the barrel to the ball and bats No. 2 in Toronto's lineup. Backing a guy like that to score at +123 is very interesting to me.
The final piece of this is the matchup against Eflin, which seems like an encouraging one.
Eflin has allowed 12 runs on 21 hits to Jays hitters this season over just 17.1 innings. Last week, Horwitz doubled and scored off the right-hander.
Key stat: Horwitz is 2-for-3 with a double and a run scored against Eflin. He's batting .301 against righties this season.
Quick picks
Blue Jays +1.5 (-130): I don't often like to bet in the Blue Jays' favour on team markets, but this one jumps out for a few reasons.
First off, the Jays are coming into Baltimore playing some decently competitive baseball. They just swept the Texas Rangers and have now cashed this bet in 14 of their past 18 games.
Additionally, as mentioned, Toronto has played well against Eflin. In his three starts against the Jays (while pitching for the Rays), Toronto earned two straight-up victories and cashed this bet all three times.
Lastly, let's show some love for the month that Rodriguez is having on the mound for Toronto.
In four starts, Rodriguez has allowed just five runs (2.01 ERA) while posting a .123 opponent batting average.
Blue Jays to score first (-118): This pick has a lot to do with my reasoning for backing the Jays on the run line. The starting pitcher matchup suggests that Toronto can be the first team on the board.
Rodriguez hasn't faced the Orioles before and I'm hoping that unfamiliarity works in his favour. Either way, his .123 opponent BA this month is very encouraging.
As for Eflin, he allowed the Jays to score first in his past two outings against them — and both of those were in Toronto. Today, the Jays will bat first as the road team and should have an even better chance of plating the first run.
Blue Jays picks: Game 2 odds
For Monday evening's matchup, Toronto will send Bowden Francis (3-2, 5.82 ERA) to the mound. Baltimore hasn't officially announced its Game 2 starter, but Cade Povich (1-4, 6.27 ERA) will reportedly be added to the roster and should fill that role.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game 2 odds for tonight:
| Market | Odds |
| Blue Jays moneyline | +145 |
| Orioles moneyline | -175 |
| Blue Jays +1.5 | -143 |
| Orioles -1.5 | +116 |
| Over 9 runs | -118 |
| Under 9 runs | -103 |
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 07/29/24.
