Canada continues its men's basketball Group A preliminaries on Tuesday morning against Josh Giddey and Australia.
The pregame narrative: It might be an unpopular opinion, but I'm fading Canadian superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against the Aussies. On a more positive note, I like Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale to make solid contributions for their respective squads.
Check out the best Canada vs. Australia basketball props for July 30.
Canada vs. Australia basketball props
| Picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| SGA under 30.5 pts/ast | -118 | Add to betslip |
| Landale over 20.5 pts/reb | -106 | Add to betslip |
| Brooks over 15.5 pts/reb | -118 | Add to betslip |
Go to full Olympics men's basketball betting markets.
Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander under 30.5 points/assists (-118)
Gilgeous-Alexander had a great game for Canada on Saturday. But that's part of the reason I'm fading him.
In 30 minutes against Greece, SGA finished with 21 points and seven assists. He shot 50.0% from the field, including 2-for-3 from 3-point range, and he sank nine of 10 free throws.
Playing three-quarters of a 40-minute game is the equivalent of 36 minutes in an NBA game. In my opinion, that's about as hefty of a workload as we should expect for Canada's superstar guard in the preliminary round.
The over/under for Canada vs. Australia is set at 178.5 points, which means the teams are expected to score a lot of points (for context, Canada/Greece combined for 165 points). But I don't think SGA will see a greater minutes total than he did against Greece, so I'm skeptical that he can find an uptick in production.
What if Jamal Murray, who played 18 minutes off the bench against Greece, gets into a groove that allows SGA to rest more? Keep in mind that Murray was a limited participant in Canada's friendlies due to injury precautions and could still have a bigger role ahead of him.
I don't doubt Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to shine against Australia. But a quality-over-quantity performance is what I expect from the first-team All-NBA guard.
Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone under this points/assists mark in all four games for Canada this month.
Quick picks
Landale over 20.5 points/rebounds (-106): Landale crushed this line in his tournament debut, finishing with 20 points and nine rebounds against Spain.
He took a team-high 14 shots and played 28 of 40 minutes, which shows that Australia is willing to ride its 6-foot-11 centre when the time is right.
Should Landale see another outsized workload against Canada on Tuesday? I think so. The Canadian backcourt is loaded with defensive menaces (Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), so it'd make sense to see the Aussies work the ball inside.
Landale also starred against the USA in exhibition play earlier this month, totalling 20 points and seven rebounds in 27 minutes.
Brooks over 15.5 points/rebounds (-118): Brooks is more than just a pest. If you don't know that by now, you aren't paying attention.
The 6-foot-6 wing from Mississauga, Ontario knows how to crash the boards and nail an outside jumper. He shot 3-for-4 from beyond the arc in Canada's tourney opener, and he had the same 3-point stat line in its final exhibition matchup (vs. Puerto Rico).
In four games with the national team this month, Brooks has averaged 16.8 points/rebounds. In each of the past three games, he's played 22 or more minutes.
As long as his workload stays in that range — and there's no reason to think it won't — this is a very attainable line for the Houston Rockets player.
Picks made at 12:15 p.m. on 07/29/24.
