Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte is the featured player for Monday's MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Marte does significant damage against left-handers and faces one tonight to close out the 12-game MLB slate. I have additional plays on Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena.
Check out these MLB prop bets for July 29.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Marte over 1.5 bases (-122)
Of the 107 players with 100-plus plate appearances versus lefties this season, none have a greater slugging percentage than Marte (.703).
Marte's 204 wRC+ against southpaws trails only AL MVP favourite Aaron Judge, while his 14 homers paces MLB.
This has made Marte a must-browse on the prop market when he's facing a left-hander, which he will tonight when he sees Washington Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker.
Parker is having a solid campaign but has pitched worse on the road (tonight's game is in Arizona) and the power production against him is exclusively coming from the right side.
Not only is Marte crushing lefties, he's enjoyed a monster July, hitting .333 with a 1.016 OPS.
Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte has cleared this line in each of his past five starts.
Quick picks
Thomas over 1.5 bases (+118): Sticking with the Nationals/D-backs game, I'm targeting a bat from the other side in what profiles as a strong matchup for right-handed hitters.
The Diamondbacks are deploying lefty Jordan Montgomery, who's having a dreadful season and has been particularly ambushed by righty bats. Look at his splits:
- vs. RHB: .329/.380/.531, 8 homers
- vs. LHB: .217/.265/.283, 0 homers
Thomas enters tonight hitting .326 with a .922 OPS versus southpaws.
His power has evaporated in July but Thomas is still hitting for average (.287), and he slugged north of .500 in both May and June.
Arozarena over 1.5 bases (+108): Arozarena has bounced back strong following a rough start to the season.
The recent Seattle Mariners trade acquisition has done this over the last two months:
- June: .291/.424/.468
- July: .286/.378/.532
That works out to a .902 OPS since June 1. That's extra impressive considering he ended May with a dismal .158/.257/.312 slash line.
Arozarena has hit in the No. 2 spot in both games with the Mariners and should be expected there again tonight when he faces Boston Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta.
The former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder has seen Pivetta plenty from his days in the AL East, slashing .364/.482/.727 off him with five strikeouts in 27 plate appearances.
Picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 07/29/2024.
